The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 examines the global cotton sector, projecting supply, demand, and trade patterns over the next decade. The report analyses key drivers including climate change, policy shifts, input costs, and consumer preferences. It provides updated forecasts for major cotton-producing and consuming countries, with implications for economic, environmental, and social outcomes in the textile ecosystem.  

Major findings show that demand for cotton will continue increasing driven by population growth and income rises. However, supply-side constraints are expected, with yields under pressure due to rising costs (fertilisers, energy, transportation) and environmental stresses. Trade flows are expected to shift in the coming decade. Countries with competitive production, thanks to lower costs and favourable climates, are likely to expand their share of exports. In contrast, producers facing higher input costs or weaker infrastructure may see their share decrease.  

Key Insights

• Cotton demand is projected to grow steadily through 2034, reflecting rising incomes and urban populations.  
• Costs of production (inputs like fertilisers, energy, and transport) are expected to rise, putting pressure on yields and profitability.  
• Environmental and climate challenges (water availability, heat stress, etc.) are increasingly relevant constraints for cotton-growing regions.  
• International trade of cotton will shift, benefiting regions with lower production costs; trade competitiveness will become more critical.  
• Policy, infrastructure, and investment decisions will increasingly shape which cotton producers can keep up with rising demand under tighter cost and environmental conditions.  

This outlook matters for textile industry stakeholders, farmers, policy makers, and businesses investing in sustainable cotton. It suggests that responding to input cost pressures, investing in resilient agricultural practices, and ensuring efficient supply chains will be essential to navigating future risks and capturing opportunities.

To explore the full cotton forecast, country-by-country projections, and scenario analyses, read the OECD-FAO Outlook 2025-2034 cotton section here.