Global government support for large manufacturing firms has nearly doubled since the global financial crisis, reaching USD 108 billion (approx. EUR 99 billion) in 2024, with China accounting for the largest increase and subsidy intensity highest in semiconductors and solar panels. The euro area's own current account surplus is described as more mixed than China's or the US's, offset by energy import dependence but supported by surpluses in goods including machinery, capital goods and consumer products. An econometric analysis of Chinese sectors that, although subsidies made only a modest contribution to overall export growth, their impact was considerably stronger in strategic industries. In sectors such as automotive, solar panels, wind turbines and semiconductors, subsidies are estimated to have contributed between four and fourteen times more to export growth than in the overall sample. According to the ECB authors, such sector-specific export gains may have implications for trading partners by increasing competitive pressures in strategically important industries and potentially contributing to trade tensions.

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