The article 'Understanding Textile Value Chains: Dynamic Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis of Textile in the European Union' by Loredana Napolano, Jacopo Foschi, Carla Patinha Caldeira, Dries Huygens, and Serenella Sala uses a Dynamic Probabilistic Mass Flow Analysis (DPMFA) to map textile production, use, waste, and end-of-life flows in the EU-27 for 2019, and projects baseline flows toward 2035. DPMFA is a modelling approach that tracks how materials move through a system over time, while also incorporating uncertainties such as product lifetimes and disposal patterns.

This paper addresses critical knowledge gaps in textile circularity by revealing how much textile waste is generated, and how much of that is being diverted (or not) from incineration or landfilling.  

Key Findings  

• The EU-27 produces and consumes large textile volumes: in 2019, around 11 million tonnes of used and waste textiles were generated annually.  
• Most of the textile waste (~80%) is not recycled: approximately 8.5 Mt of this waste is either incinerated or landfilled.  
• Projections toward 2035 suggest that without significant changes in policy or practices, these end-of-life flows will remain high, implying persistent environmental burdens.  
• The probabilistic nature of the model accounts for uncertainties in data (e.g. different types of textiles, product lifetimes, disposal paths), enabling more robust understanding of where interventions may be most effective.  

Stakeholders from policymakers to waste management sectors can use these findings to identify priority areas for circular textile interventions. For example, focusing on reducing the share of textiles going to landfill/incineration, improving collection and sorting systems, and designing textiles with longer lifetimes or better recyclability. Investment decisions, regulatory frameworks, and industry practices can be guided by this material flow data to reduce waste and increase reuse/recycling.

This paper makes it clear that while the EU-27 textile sector generates massive volumes of waste, only a small fraction is being diverted from destructive end-of-life methods. To shift toward true circularity, changes are needed in production design, waste management infrastructure, and regulation.

For full details and methodology, refer to the original article on JRC / ScienceDirect.